Donald Duke: Nigeria’s Vanishing Middle Class Exposes Deepening Economic Crisis

Ayodeji Ake

The presidential candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Donald Duke, has said the disappearance of Nigeria’s middle class reflects the deepening economic crisis in the country, warning that widespread poverty, unemployment and insecurity are pushing the nation towards state failure.

Duke, who spoke in an interview, said many Nigerians who previously considered themselves financially stable, were now struggling to meet their basic needs, leaving them vulnerable to economic shocks and emergencies.

He argued that the country’s economic difficulties had been compounded by shrinking businesses, inadequate job opportunities and a rapidly expanding population that the economy could no longer adequately support.

“The so-called middle class does not really exist anymore. Many of those we call middle class are only surviving from day-to-day. Let there be one serious emergency and they crumble,” he said.

The former Cross River State governor said the widening gap between the wealthy and the poor was an indication that Nigeria’s economy was failing to provide the conditions necessary for a decent standard of living.

“You have perhaps one per cent who are genuinely wealthy and then a huge number of people struggling around or below the poverty line,” he said.

Duke explained that the situation had become a major motivation for his decision to contest the 2027 presidential election, arguing that Nigeria could not afford to continue on its present path for another four years.

“I talk about the urgency of now because I don’t think we can go on like this for another four years,” he said.

He explained that his decision to seek the presidency was driven by the need to move beyond criticism of successive governments and offer solutions to the country’s worsening economic and social challenges.

“You get to a point in your life where you say, ‘Either I walk away or I do something.’

“There is no guarantee that you will win. But I don’t want to look back and say that all these things happened and I did nothing,” he said.

The PRP candidate said his campaign would focus on the substantive issues affecting Nigerians, including poverty, unemployment, economic decline and insecurity, rather than political personalities.

“What I want to do is focus on those who aspire to lead this nation on addressing the issues that affect us and how we can resolve them.

“I talk about the options. I talk about the real issues. I don’t want to talk about personalities,” he said.

Duke linked the country’s economic difficulties to the growing insecurity, including kidnapping, banditry, terrorism and other violent conflicts, arguing that the government must address the underlying causes of these problems.

He described the security crisis as evidence of the state’s inability to protect citizens and create an environment in which they could live productive lives.

“If we don’t address these issues squarely and fundamentally, we’re already a failed state. There’s no question about it. Look at what is happening, banditry, terrorism, kidnapping and all sorts of conflicts. These are symptoms of a state that is unable, not only to properly articulate its challenges, but to deal with them,” he said.

According to him, the existence of government institutions does not necessarily mean that the state is fulfilling its responsibilities to citizens.

“What is the definition of a failed state? Fundamentally, it is a state that fails to meet the aspirations of its people.

“You may still have a government and institutions, but if the state cannot protect the people and provide the environment in which they can live productive lives, then it is failing them,” he said.

Duke added that the experiences of victims of kidnapping illustrated the consequences of the state’s failure to guarantee security.

“Talk to someone who has been kidnapped. That person does not need you to explain the definition of a failed state. His experience has already told him what failure of the state means,” he said.

He maintained that poverty and unemployment were among the underlying factors contributing to banditry and kidnapping, warning that security responses would remain inadequate if the economic conditions driving criminality were ignored.

“When it comes to banditry and kidnapping, poverty and unemployment are at the bottom of much of it.

“We keep reacting to these crises instead of asking what is producing them. We are too reactive in our governance. Governance is not just about today; it is about laying the foundation for tomorrow,” he said.

The former governor expressed concern that Nigeria was not generating businesses and employment opportunities at a rate sufficient to accommodate its growing working-age population.

He said the annual influx of graduates into the labour market, coupled with the difficulties confronting existing businesses, was worsening the country’s employment challenge.

“Businesses are contracting. New ones are not springing up the way they should. At the same time, we are turning out graduates every year and adding more people to the working population, but there is no work for them to do,” he said.

Duke also questioned whether Nigeria’s economy had expanded sufficiently to support its population, comparing the country’s crude oil production with figures from more than four decades ago.

He recalled that Nigeria produced approximately 2.5 million barrels of crude oil daily in 1980, compared with about 1.7 million barrels at the time of his remarks, despite substantial population growth.

“In 1980, Nigeria was producing about 2.5 million barrels of oil a day. Forty-six years later, we are producing around 1.7 million barrels, while our population has tripled.

“So you have to ask: has the economy expanded enough to carry the population? Clearly, it has not,” he said.

He argued that Nigeria’s large population should serve as an economic advantage rather than a source of instability, provided the government invested adequately in education, employment and productivity.

“Our numbers ought to be an asset. But a large population is an asset only when you can educate the people, employ them and make them productive,” he said.

Duke warned that the failure to create sufficient opportunities would continue to encourage Nigerians with the resources to seek better prospects abroad, while those remaining in the country would face mounting economic pressure.

The PRP candidate said his presidential ambition was rooted in his longstanding belief that Nigeria could become a successful nation if its resources and population were properly managed.

He recalled that he had the opportunity to remain in the United States after studying and working there in his twenties but chose to return to Nigeria because he believed he had a role to play in the country’s development.

“I had the opportunity in my twenties to remain in America. I went to school there and worked there for a while.

“But I voluntarily decided that was not where I wanted to be. I believe the Almighty put me in Nigeria for a reason. I believe in this country’s possibilities, and this is where I believe I should contribute,” he said.

He said that conviction had informed his decision to contest the Cross River governorship in 1999 and now underpinned his bid for the presidency ahead of the 2027 election.

“I wanted to prove then that we were better than what we were putting forward. From experience, I know Nigeria can be a very successful nation,” Duke said.