Again, Tinubu Forecloses Fuel Subsidy Return, Says Nigeria Won’t Go Back

• Oyedele: Petrol subsidy restoration ’ll devastate economy, hurt Nigerians  

•Argues capital flight may push dollar to N3,000, petrol to N5,000 per litre 

•Minister predicts Nigeria ’ll outperform IMF’s 4.1% growth forecast for 2026

Deji Elumoye and Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu last night revisited the issue of fuel subsidy removal and once again foreclosed its return, saying the nation won’t go ‘back to Egypt’ on the matter.

Also, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has warned that restoring fuel subsidy would devastate Nigeria’s economy, trigger capital flight, weaken the naira and ultimately impose a heavier burden on Nigerians through higher petrol prices.

But speaking at a special engagement tagged: “An Evening with the Original City Boy,” at the Conference hall of the State House, Abuja, the president likened the fuel subsidy removal to passages in both the Bible and the Quran.

“I remember my scripture studies, both in the Bible and in the Holy Quran. When Moses and Musa left Egypt, they faced a challenge, and the Red Sea parted and gave way. You cannot ask Moses to go back to Egypt,” he maintained.

He stressed that the decision to remove petrol subsidy on his first day in office was necessary to confront longstanding economic challenges, insisting that the country could not afford to reverse the reforms despite renewed promises by some political opponents to restore the subsidy regime.

“I removed the fuel subsidy on my first day in office. Nigeria will not go back to that era. I hear my political opponents promising a return to the subsidy regime, but Nigeria must win this election before any candidate does,” he said.

Tinubu declared that Nigeria would not reverse the economic reforms introduced since he assumed office in May 2023, despite the challenges associated with their implementation.

He defended his administration’s economic policies and reaffirmed his determination to build a more prosperous Nigeria.

The president recalled the economic difficulties inherited by his government, including what he described as excessive currency printing, fiscal pressures and structural weaknesses, explaining that his government had since embarked on reforms in taxation, monetary management and other critical sectors to reposition the economy.

He added: “Currency was being printed as if there was no tomorrow. That was a challenge, but rather than looking back, we took steps to address it and rebuild our tax system.”

Tinubu expressed satisfaction with the support of young Nigerians for his reform agenda, noting that despite predictions that the younger generation would reject the difficult policies, their continued engagement demonstrated confidence in the country’s future.

The president said the enthusiasm and commitment of members of the City Boy Movement reinforced his conviction that the sacrifices associated with the ongoing reforms would contribute to building a stronger nation.

“I did not see a crowd. I saw Nigeria,” Tinubu declared, explaining that the gathering reminded him of the reasons he sought the presidency and his daily commitment to national development.

He commended the movement for establishing extensive grassroots structures across states, local government areas and wards, describing its organisational approach, verifiable membership database, communication platforms and community engagement initiatives as an example of purposeful youth participation in national affairs.

Highlighting his administration’s youth-focused interventions, the president identified the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), which had supported more than one million students, as a significant initiative designed to ensure that financial limitations did not prevent young Nigerians from accessing higher education.

He also referenced the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation (CREDICORP), established to expand access to credit for workers seeking to acquire essential assets, including laptops, vehicles, motorcycles and solar energy systems.

Similarly, he highlighted the Three Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme as part of the administration’s efforts to equip young Nigerians with globally competitive digital skills and opportunities to participate in the international technology economy.

Tinubu reaffirmed his commitment to appointing more qualified young Nigerians into positions of responsibility, maintaining that those who would inherit the consequences of today’s policy decisions deserved opportunities to participate in shaping them.

In a direct speech to his son and Patron of the City Boy Movement, Seyi Tinubu, the president urged him to deepen his commitment to public service, youth engagement and responsible leadership.

“My son, Seyi, you have only started. Do more. Go further. Serve harder. Set an example that your own children, my grandchildren, will be proud to follow. Nigerians are watching, and they should know that serving your country is the highest honour,” he said.

Shettima Attacks Atiku, Defends Tinubu

Earlier, Vice President Kashim Shettima picked on former Vice President Atiku Abubakar over his criticism of the Tinubu government, recalling how the president provided a political platform for Atiku during his disagreement with the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ahead of the 2007 presidential election.

He recalled that Atiku found political accommodation in the defunct Action Congress (AC), a party associated with Tinubu, when he sought to contest the presidency after falling out with the PDP leadership.

According to Shettima, Atiku “found refuge in the land of the Jagaban”, referencing Tinubu’s political support during that period.

He queried the consistency of some of Atiku’s present political positions, maintaining that political disagreements should not obscure important events in the country’s democratic history.

The vice president also warned opposition politicians against insulting or disrespecting  Tinubu, declaring that the ruling APC would not condone malicious attacks, deliberate falsehoods or personal vilification of the President in the name of political opposition.

He noted that political competition must be conducted within acceptable standards of decency and mutual respect.

Shettima maintained that while the APC welcomed robust political engagement and constructive criticism of government policies, it would not allow opposition figures to hide behind democratic freedoms to engage in what he described as malicious fabrications against the president.

“Desperation is not insanity,” the vice president declared, warning that the pursuit of political power should not become an excuse for abandoning basic standards of responsible public conduct.

He stressed that political actors, irrespective of their affiliations or ambitions, must maintain a minimal threshold of decency in their public statements and engagements.

The APC, he said, would continue to engage opposition parties on substantive issues of governance, economic policy and national development, but would firmly challenge attempts to misrepresent the president’s record or undermine his person through what he considered unfounded attacks.

He, however, maintained that political opponents were not enemies, describing them as fellow Nigerians with competing visions for the country’s future and stressing that disagreements should not erode mutual respect or the shared responsibility of building a stronger nation.

While defending the government’s economic policies, Shettima said the administration inherited enormous financial challenges, including approximately N27 trillion in ‘Ways and Means’ obligations, weak public finances and considerable pressure on the foreign exchange market.

On his part, Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau Jibrin, urged the City Boy Movement to deploy artificial intelligence and other digital technologies to educate Nigerians about the administration’s programmes, the records of opposition politicians and the factors responsible for the country’s cost-of-living challenges.

Barau commended the movement for its technological presentation, saying its approach to communicating government policies and achievements represented a significant departure from conventional political mobilisation.

Also, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon Tajudeen Abbas, announced plans to launch a comprehensive public accountability initiative tagged: “The PBAT Stewardship Account,” aimed at providing Nigerians with verifiable information on projects, interventions and legislative achievements under the Tinubu administration.

Abbas disclosed that within 14 days, he would hold a media briefing to present a detailed account of interventions associated with the president, including their locations, financial values and implementation status, alongside a scorecard of the legislative achievements of the 10th House of Representatives.

Oyedele: Petrol Subsidy Restoration ’ll Devastate Economy

Meanwhile, the debate over whether to return Nigeria’s petrol subsidy has continued, with the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Oyedele, warning that restoring it would devastate Nigeria’s economy, trigger capital flight, weaken the naira and ultimately impose a heavier burden on Nigerians through higher petrol prices.

Oyedele, who spoke in an interview with Arise News Business Correspondent, Rotus Odiri, in Bangkok, Thailand, at the just-concluded International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank annual meetings, said Nigeria could not afford to reverse the removal of the subsidy, insisting that the country lacked the crude oil required to sustain such a policy.

He argued that renewed subsidy commitments would undermine investor confidence, trigger a fresh depreciation of the naira and potentially push the exchange rate to between N3,000 and N4,000 to the dollar, with petrol prices rising to as much as N5,000 per litre. The interview was aired yesterday.

The minister’s comments came amid renewed political discussions around fuel prices and calls for government intervention to ease the burden of rising living costs. The call has been largely spearheaded by the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku.

But Oyedele said the economic consequences of a return to subsidies would outweigh any immediate relief consumers might enjoy, warning politicians against presenting the policy as a viable solution to the country’s economic challenges.

“We’re at the tail end of it, which is why I keep saying if it’s a joke, anybody that is talking about reversing the subsidy should please stop it. Stop that joke. They should just stop the joke,” he said.

Explaining the rationale behind the federal government’s recent clarification on fuel prices and a 30-day discount arrangement, Oyedele said the Ministry of Finance had a responsibility to provide Nigerians with accurate economic information, particularly when political promises threatened to create unrealistic expectations.

He disclosed that the government had initially been reluctant to engage in the political debate surrounding fuel prices but eventually decided that it could not remain silent while politicians made competing promises about how cheaply petrol could be sold.

“I don’t qualify to be a politician. So I know politicians have a way of trying to hold on to something. So when this whole thing about subsidy started, I honestly thought it was a joke. It was repeated many times. Some people started believing it. Other politicians jumped on the bandwagon.

“They were giving numbers, N700, me I can even do N500, somebody said I can do N300, I said very soon it will be, I can give out for free,” he said, mocking the proponents of fuel subsidy removal.

The minister said the government’s intervention was intended to explain the economic realities behind petrol pricing and demonstrate why promises to restore subsidies could not be implemented without serious consequences.

He added that Nigeria did not have sufficient crude oil available to support such an arrangement, noting that expanding production could not be achieved within a few months.

“We have to clarify. Number two, we actually do not have the crude to give. You can’t give what you don’t have. You can blame whatever past administration for why you don’t have the crude, but it doesn’t change the fact that today, you do not have crude. And to produce crude oil is not a matter of months. It takes years,” he said.

Oyedele explained that the exchange rate remained the biggest determinant of petrol prices, warning that any policy that undermined investor confidence could worsen the very problem it was designed to solve.

He cited Indonesia as an example of the risks associated with subsidy discussions, arguing that even the announcement of a return to subsidies could influence investment decisions and capital flows.

Minister Says Capital Flight May Push Dollar to N3,000

Oyedele maintained that the government’s body language merely favouring the restoration of subsidy will not only lead to capital flight, but will generally worsen the economic state of Nigerians, saying that it was a no go area.

“When you do any subsidy, like is happening to Indonesia, just say you want to do it, not that you have even started. The capital will leave. Investment will go. And when that happens, the Naira will crash, and then the same subsidy that you are hoping will bring down the cost of fuel will now be the reason why it will go up, because the Naira exchange rate will be like N3,000, N4,000,” he maintained.

The minister also rejected the characterisation of the recent fuel discount arrangement as a subsidy, arguing that a genuine subsidy would require the government to pay from the treasury while selling petrol below its market price.

He said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) remained wholly owned by the government, through the Ministry of Finance Incorporated and the Ministry of Petroleum Incorporated, but that government ownership alone did not make a commercial price adjustment a subsidy.

“ It’s one of the reasons why some people say it’s still a subsidy, but it’s not a subsidy unless you’re paying from the treasury and you’re selling below market price,” he said.

On the wider implications of the government’s economic reforms, Oyedele said the priority was to complete the adjustment process, stabilise the economy and ensure that income growth eventually outpaced increases in the cost of living.

He acknowledged the hardship associated with the reforms but maintained that suppressing prices artificially was not a sustainable route to prosperity.

“The objective should be that instead of trying to suppress prices, which hasn’t worked for us, it hasn’t worked for any country in the world, not one, instead of trying to suppress prices, think about how to grow income faster than prices rise. That’s how you bring prosperity and grow the middle class. And that’s exactly what we are doing as led by Mr. President himself,” he said.

On the possibility of introducing fuel taxes in the future, the minister said the government was not ruling out the policy but would only consider it when economic conditions and household incomes could accommodate the additional burden.

He explained that fuel taxes could provide dedicated funding for road infrastructure and strategic fuel reserves, allowing the government to cushion the impact of future international oil price shocks.

Oyedele admitted that several countries had reduced fuel taxes to cushion consumers during periods of elevated energy prices, but Nigeria lacked such a mechanism because it did not have a comparable fuel tax regime.

He stressed, however, that any decision to introduce the taxes would be transparent and would follow the legal process, including publication of the required order in the official gazette.

On mounting concerns about government revenues, debt servicing and conflicting fiscal statistics, the minister admitted that Nigeria had significant weaknesses in the way public financial data were reported and reconciled.

He said the Ministry of Finance had begun work to improve the quality, consistency and accessibility of fiscal information, with the aim of giving investors, development partners and Nigerians a clearer understanding of the country’s revenue position and debt obligations.

“One of our top priorities over the next few months before the end of the year is fiscal data. I’ll be honest with you, we’re not doing well in terms of reporting government data. And so different stakeholders, depending on where they get the information from, are confused. And so they report different numbers,” he said.

The minister was responding to questions about discrepancies between figures reported by the World Bank and those published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) on interest payments, as well as differing assessments of Nigeria’s tax-to-gross domestic product ratio.

He said some of the discrepancies arose because the federal government makes certain external debt payments on behalf of state governments and other subnational entities before recovering the amounts from them, sometimes after delays.

According to him, comparing federation-wide interest payments with only federal government revenue could produce misleading conclusions about the government’s capacity to service its debt.

He added that revenue figures were often drawn from different sources and presented without adequate explanations of how federal, state and federation revenues related to one another.

Oyedele said the government intended to publish clearer fiscal indicators, accompanied by explanations and detailed breakdowns, on the Ministry of Finance’s website to improve transparency and ensure that international assessments were based on properly reconciled figures.

On the growing revenue allocations to state governments, the minister said the federal government was seeking greater cooperation among the three tiers of government to translate increased public revenue into better living conditions.

He said the federal government’s primary responsibility was to maintain macroeconomic stability, while state and local governments had a central role in delivering basic education, primary healthcare, sanitation and access roads connecting farms to markets.

Although he acknowledged that some states needed to improve their spending priorities and the quality of their expenditure, he said the federal government lacked the statutory authority to compel subnational governments to act in particular ways.

“The thinking behind it is that if you look closely at the primary responsibilities of different levels of government, you’re likely to conclude that the primary responsibility of the federal government is economic, macroeconomic stability. So when inflation is moving in the wrong direction, you can’t blame the states. Maybe you can blame some of them, but just blame the federal government.

“But once those ones have been stabilised, how you deliver shared prosperity is with sub-national. So whether there’s primary school for basic education, whether there’s a clinic, whether there’s sanitation, whether the access road from farm to the market is working. It’s not the federal government,” he pointed out.

Oyedele argued that the distribution of federation revenue was more complicated than the commonly cited allocation formula suggested, pointing to derivation payments, value-added tax, stamp duties and personal income tax as revenue sources that significantly benefit states.

He said strengthening the federal government’s revenue base would enable it to support state governments with funding tied to agreed national development priorities.

On the economic outlook, the minister expressed confidence that Nigeria would outperform the IMF’s growth projections of 4.1 per cent for 2026 and 4.3 per cent for 2027.

“We will exceed the forecast that the IMF has for us for 2026. We would exceed the one for 2027. We will exceed it for 2028. We’ll exceed all of it because they’re conservative. And you know they have the opportunity to always revise it. We expect they will revise it again very soon, upwards,” he assured.