At 68.2% YtD Gain in Dollar Terms, Nigerian Exchange Emerges Top in Africa
Kayode Tokede
The Nigerian equities market has emerged Africa’s strongest performer in U.S. dollar terms with a 68.2 per cent Year- till-Date (YtD) return in the first seven months of 2026.
The bourse performance between January and July 24, 2026 outpaced other continental stock markets helped by investors confidence on the back of reforms by the Nigerian government.
The strong performance in dollar terms highlights the impact of exchange rate dynamics and renewed foreign portfolio participation.
By comparison, Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, trails Nigeria when returns are converted into dollars, underscoring how currency movements can significantly alter relative market standings from a global investment perspective.
Zimbabwe Stock Exchange closed July 24, 2026 with 64.08 per cent YtD returns , followed by Ghana Stock Exchange that closed at 56.97per cent in its YtD performance as of July 24, 2026.
Zimbabwe’s market has faced currency-related pressures that have tempered its equity market’s appeal in dollar terms, even where nominal local gains appear strong. Across African markets, divergent exchange rate trends have become a decisive factor in shaping cross-border capital flows.
Among the top losers in Africa are: Malawi Stock Exchange with -15.28 YtD performance, followed by Casablanca Stock Exchange that declined by -8.43 YtD.
However, when capered with data gathered from other African markets, the Nigerian market’s 58.96 per cent YtD return, placed it third behind Ghana Stock Exchange and Zimbabwe Stock Exchange in local currency terms.
In terms of value, the market capitalisation of the NGX in U.S dollar terms reached $117.16 billion (N159.588 trillion) as of July 2024, 2026 from $69.22 billion (N99.376 trillion) in 2025.
This strong showing reflects a combination of significant surge in the prices of Airtel Africa Plc, MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement Plc and improved currency stability.
The Nigerian stock market this year has witnessed: a historic bull run, fuelled by the successful completion of the banking sector recapitalisation programme, a rebound in external reserves to 13-year high and a fragile but genuine stabilisation of the naira.
The NGX has benefited from improving macro-economic signals, including tighter monetary policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) aimed at stabilising inflation and restoring confidence in the foreign exchange market.
While inflationary pressures remain elevated and economic reforms continue to test businesses and households, investors appear to be positioning ahead of anticipated medium-term recovery gains.
Commenting on the development, market operators noted that Nigeria’s strong dollar-denominated return is particularly significant given the broader global environment marked by higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies.
They added that in such a climate, emerging and frontier markets must offer compelling risk-adjusted returns to attract capital. According to them, Nigeria’s current performance suggests that investors are finding that value proposition increasingly attractive.
Elsewhere on the continent, Ghana posted impressive gains in local currency terms, while Kenya has experienced bouts of profit-taking in large-cap counters. Southern African markets such as Zambia have also demonstrated how currency appreciation can magnify dollar returns even when local gains remain modest.
On the stock market performance in the second half (H2) of 2026, a renowned capital market economist, Professor Uche Uwaleke, stated that Nigeria’s capital market entered H2 2026 from a position of considerable strength despite the June correction.
“The half-year established a higher base for Nigerian equities, and the correction is better read as repricing than reversal- a market rotating from broad momentum toward earnings quality and valuation discipline.
“The second half rests on delivery rather than sentiment. Bank capital deployment, insurance consolidation ahead of the NAICOM deadline, the FTSE Russell reclassification decision, pre-election activities, and the prospective listing of the Dangote Refinery will determine whether the market builds on its first-half base or reverse gains.
“The first half of 2026 has proven that reform, when consistent and credible, can move markets and rebuild confidence. The second half of 2026 must prove that this macroeconomic momentum can be harnessed in service of a more profound and equitable national transformation,” he explained.
In his presentation titled, “Navigating Opportunities in a Changing”Nigerian Economy,” the Managing Director/CEO, Arthur Steven Asset Management, Mr. Tunde Amolegbe, noted that the rally in the Nigerian stock market has been underpinned by real macro improvements including earlier disinflation, a steadier naira, stronger reserves, and renewed foreign portfolio inflows, even though the market appears to be looking past the recent uptick in inflation and the CBN’s cautious hold at 26.5 per cent.
“Looking ahead, the anticipated listing of Dangote Refinery on the NGX stands out as a major catalyst, with the potential to significantly deepen the market, attract fresh institutional and foreign interest, and lift the weighting of the energy sector on the exchange.
“The main risks remain a hawkish shift in monetary policy should inflation continue rising, and stretched valuations in some of the mid cap names that have rallied without matching earnings growth.
“On balance, the outlook stays constructive, with banking sector consolidation, the Dangote Refinery listing, and continued strength in oil and gas and industrials likely to shape performance through the rest of the year,”he added.
