INEC as Strait of Hormuz      

Imagine the political space in Nigeria to be the Persian Gulf, 989 kilometres long and 336 kms at its widest point. Imagine the 19 registered political parties in Nigeria to be akin to the 2,000 ships, with 20,000 sailors on board, that have loaded up crude oil and liquefied natural gas from Iraqi, Qatari, Bahraini, Saudi Arabian and Emirati ports as well as Iran’s Kharg island but are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf. Much like the super tankers intend to sail into the Gulf of Oman, onto the Arabian Sea and on to various destinations around the world, our political parties intend to sail through elections into State Assemblies, House of Representatives, Senate, Government Houses and onwards to the Presidency, but most of them are currently held up in our political Persian Gulf.

The “cargo” our political parties are carrying, which is equivalent to crude oil, liquefied natural gas, diesel and aviation fuel, is made up of ambitious political aspirants, each one of them backed by an army of men and women who want to ride on their backs to become legislative aides, special assistants, special advisers, commissioners and ministers. Like the cargo of super oil tankers, this Nigerian political cargo is highly combustible.

For most of the Nigerian political parties trying to sail out to the political Promised Land, they face a problem very similar to the one faced by oil tankers waiting in the Persian Gulf: they have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Right now, this narrow strait, 167 kms long, 97km at its widest point and only 39 kms wide at its narrowest point, is the most prized piece of waterfront estate in the whole world. All of it is within the range of Iranian missiles, drones, attack boats and mines. US President Donald Trump loves waterfront real estate; last year, he proposed to build a beautiful waterfront estate in the Gaza Strip after Israel would have expelled all its three million Palestinian inhabitants. Here now is a piece of waterfront estate much more valuable than Gaza, and Mr. Trump is desperate to open it.

To get to their destination of contesting elections, our political parties must pass through INEC. While the Strait of Hormuz is described as the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, some wags are describing INEC as Nigerian politics’ most critical chokepoint through which all political parties must pass on their way to the 2027 elections. Why because, some people are saying that the ruling All Progressives Congress [APC] has copied from a secret manual of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp [IRGC] and has lined up military assets all along the long coastline leading up to the 2027 elections.

IRGC is said to have planted artillery pieces deep inside caves and mountains overlooking the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Persian Gulf. It has also deployed fast attack boats, which will pursue and attack any ship that sails through the Strait without permission. In addition, IRGC has planted mines, some of them floating and some of them on the ocean floor, to blow up any ship that tries to sail through. Finally, from a distance all over Iran’s rugged mountainous terrain, missiles and drones are primed to sprout out from caves and attack oil tankers in the Strait. No wonder that right now, 2,000 oil tankers and other ships are stranded in Saudi, Iraqi, Qatari, Bahraini and Emirati ports, just as Nigeria’s most potent opposition parties are stranded just off INEC’s website.

The allegation by some mischievous Nigerians is that the courts are APC’s drones. Since last year, High, Appeal and Supreme Courts have handed down rulings that have created havoc in all the major opposition parties, ranging from who are the authentic local government chairmen in Osun, to who are the legitimate members of Rivers State Assembly, to whether Labour Party chairman Julius Abure’s tenure has expired, to whether PDP’s Ibadan convention was authentic, or whether Nyesom Wike’s scanty Abuja show was the real thing. And lately, whether Rafi’u Bala should single handedly replace the David Mark exco at the head of the increasingly potent ADC, despite papers flying around showing that he resigned last year along with all other ADC exco members in order to allow the politically more potent new comers to take over the leadership.

According to these mischievous Nigerians, the anti-corruption agencies EFCC, ICPC and Court of Conduct Bureau are APC’s equivalent of Iran’s Shahed missiles that have rained havoc on Tel Aviv, Haifa and even Dimona, the center of Israel’s open-secret nuclear industry. With the alleged Russian-aided precision of the Shahed drone, the anti-corruption agencies have rained charges on top opposition figures Nasiru el-Rufa’i and Abubakar Malami, and have frightened the chairman of PDP Governors’ Forum by apprehending his Finance Commissioner and his Accountant General.

I personally do not subscribe to the view of cynics, who are asking why the anti-corruption agencies appear to be asleep with the alleged trillion-naira case of former PDP vice presidential candidate Ifeanyi Okowa once he dragged his successor Sheriff Oborevwori and Delta’s entire PDP caucus into APC. Nor do I believe cynics’ allegation that EFCC’s once relentless, hide and seek pursuit of former Kogi State governor Yahaya Bello to answer a 100 billion naira alleged money laundering case has gone cold even though he is fully visible as a member of APC’s Presidential Reconciliation Committee. I do not support these insinuations; I am sure that EFCC and the courts have good reasons to keep the files under wraps.

Even the people who are alleging that DSS is APC’s equivalent of Iranian fast attack boats, I do not agree. The secret state police said it found weapons in former Attorney General Malami’s house and also said it found evidence that he is a terrorist sponsor. Malami’s claim that only one licensed gun was found in his associate’s house should not be believed. I am sure when the matter finally reaches the courts, DSS would be able to show transfers of money from Malami’s personal accounts directly into Boko Haram, ISWAP and bandits’ treasury, which will silence the cynics.

Of all the false allegations that cynics are making, the one I find most unbelievable is the allegation that INEC is the electoral Strait of Hormuz in the run up to 2027. The fact that it hurriedly ignored the PDP Turaki faction’s appeal to the Supreme Court, urgently observed the Wike faction’s Abuja “convention” and with great speed pasted the people elected at that convention on its website, does not support the allegation that INEC is an APC Strait of Hormuz. I know that these cynics are making other allegations, including that before PDP, Labour Party was also held up at INEC’s electoral chokepoint. Sometime last year, Elu Pi held a major meeting in Awka and installed former Finance Minister Nenadi Usman as its caretaker chairperson, and a court ruled that Julius Abure’s tenure as chairman had expired, but Elu Pi still got held up like an oil tanker at a Qatari port.

Late last week, there was what critics thought was a bombshell when INEC announced that it was removing the David Mark-led ADC leadership from its website, which it said was because a court ordered preservation of the status quo ante bellum. I do not agree with cynics that the timing of INEC’s action was suspicious because big political figures such as Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, Nasiru Gawuna and possibly Bala Mohammed are flocking to the party. I agree with APC’s spokesmen that the ruling party has nothing to fear from the opposition, since it controls the Presidency, National Assembly, the liquid Federal Treasury, all the security agencies, thirty state governments and, allegedly, all anti-corruption agencies and all the courts. I do not agree with this baseless allegation.

Even the skeptics’ allegation that INEC acted as an Iranian-style floating mine and refused to register ADA despite its fulfilling all conditions for registration, but that it has several werewolf parties such as Boot and Youth on its register, I do not believe it. I think General Obasanjo wrote somewhere that 1970s military rulers were worried that if FEDECO did not register PRP, a million voters in Kano could be disenfranchised, just as soldiers led by General Abdulsalami prodded INEC in 1999 to register AD. One top cynic even alleged last week that a top INEC official wrote a post-dated resignation letter before he was appointed. I am sure that Nigerians heard the last of post-dated resignation letters in 2003, when Dr. Chris Ngige was said to have handed one over to godfather Chris Ubah at the Okija Shrine. No one in Nigeria will ever write such a letter again. Some people allege that INEC’s plan to revalidate all voter’s cards is like erecting a Nigeria Police checkpoint within the Strait of Hormuz. I don’t agree. Only 26.72% of Nigerian voters voted in 2023. Even if you refuse to revalidate your voter’s card and you join the sit at homes, results will still be declared.