The Looming Shadow: The Dangers of Russian Influence and The Africa Corps in Nigeria

Jonathan James

As Africa has witnessed a wave of protests in recent months, it is important to separate the real concerns from those who make take this as an opportunity to destabilize governments. If we look at Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria, the protests have been largely well organized, with protesters feeling somewhat heard and by and large respected by the powers that be.

However, it must be pointed out that these protest often open doors for misinformation and propaganda. This is something that Russia has managed to exploit, even when the proverbial door is only somewhat ajar. To say that the Kremlin acts as an opportunist, would largely be an understatement. Russia has simply managed to infiltrate many situations where even the smallest amount of disenfranchisement has been raised. This practice has become the norm for Russia on the continent.

We have seen it across the Sahel and beyond, resulting in bloody coupes, attempted removal of leadership, illegal mining extraction as well as severe and explicit human rights abuses, including sexual violence against women and girls. Russia’s very presence on the continent is an overt threat to peace, security, democracy and sovereignty

In August of last 2024, Nigeria witnessed a wave of protests, reverberating through its streets and social media. What began as a cry for justice and reform has evolved into a complex political narrative, drawing international attention and concern. Alarmingly, the flags visible at these protests have led analysts to speculate on the potential implications of Russian influence and the activities of enigmatic entities like Russia’s Africa Corps not just in the region but now at home in Nigeria.

The #EndBadGovernance protests in Nigeria took place in the first two weeks of August 2024, but they took a rather unexpected turn when some protesters in Kano and Kaduna states, both in the country’s north-west region, were seen waving and sharing Russian flags on the streets.

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu immediately met with the country’s security chiefs and the police made a number of arrests.

According to a BBC report, more than 40 individuals were arrested waving Russian flags.

The sight of Russian flags in protests in West Africa is not new but it was the first of such to recorded in Nigeria. In the months preceding military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, similar flags weee seen on the streets.

Yet, in the case of the Nigeria protests, one individual who benefited from this wave of discontent is Sani Abbas, a Kano-based TikTok influencer with over 100,000 followers.

There are claims that the Telegram channel called “Africa Initiative” paid protesters to wave the flags. Telegram is a widely used messaging platform in Nigeria, with approximately 54 per cent of internet users aged 16 to 64 reporting usage as of the third quarter of 2022. The platform plays a pivotal role in organizing and disseminating information, but clearly can be manipulated by a targeted and well planned propaganda machine.

Telegram is quickly becoming a channel for disinformation across the continent and with very little moderation of content, harmful narratives can be spread with relative ease. This unregulated environment has positioned Telegram as a significant tool in the dissemination of foreign disinformation, impacting political sentiments and public opinion across Africa.

Looking more deeply into the use of Telegram by Russia through the “Africa Initiative” channel, shows the clever approach taken. According to the publication, “Premium Times” , One post about the Africa Initiative referenced an unnamed TikTok user to have been sharing the Russian videos and flags on X and yet another unnamed “local resident” who allegedly told them that “The protesters don’t seem to be affiliated with any pro-Russian group. They just made amateur flags — this suggests the notion that pro-Russian sentiments are developing organically.”

(Premium Times – December 15th, 2024)

The Russian embassy in Abuja denied any meddling in Nigeria’s internal affairs. However, what has been made clear is a direct concern that Nigeria’s northern region shares a poorly policed 1,497km border with Niger Republic, where a pro-Russia military junta currently holds sway.

The question must be asked; why were some protesters waving the Russian flag? There are a number of explanations, but the most obvious is that the protest was infiltrated by some Nigeriens to register their displeasure with the Nigerian government’s stance towards the military junta in Niger.

In July 2023, Niger’s military took over in a coup just two years after the country’s first transition to civilian power. The coup has brought into sharp focus the role of foreign countries in Niger’s politics.

In fact, Since the coup, several analysts have noted the role of Russia. Some analysts and regional experts believe Russia might have played a role in the military takeover given the following developments that have continued to play out following the military take over along diplomatic lines with the new military regime and Russia.

Seven Nigerian states share a border with the Republic of Niger. For the most part, the border is porous and largely un-secured. For decades, people from Niger and northern Nigeria have freely travelled between the two countries for work and family related issues, but in 2024 this comes with immense security challenges that Nigeria cannot and should not turn its eyes and attention away from.

With the expanding relationship between Niger and Russia, the Africa Corps – a private military organization fronting for Russia and involved in their so callled and guised fight against terrorism in the Sahel – poses a threat to the entire region. Nigeria, Africa’s second largest oil and gas producer, is no exception.

The Nigerian President, Bola Tinubu, who also doubles as the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), imposed sanctions on Niger when the military took over in 2023. This argument about foreign infiltration could very well be the main reason for the withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from the regional grouping.

Russia’s deplorable tactics that blend military, political, and informational warfare aligns with the country’s broader geopolitical ambitions. With Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation and an oil-rich powerhouse, the stakes are clearly and incredibly high.

The presence of Russian flags at protests may signal a deliberate strategy to leverage social unrest for geopolitical gain by capitalizing on the vulnerabilities of a nation grappling with internal strife.

Russia could aim to weaken government authority while positioning itself as a sympathetic ally to disaffected groups, this is not a new tactic for Russia and has in fact become a regular offering from the Kremlin to African states.

No strangers to the excessive use of misinformation, there must be a concerted effort from ECOWAS and the African Union to highlight that this is nothing more than a propaganda campaign designed to strengthen Russia’s presence on the continent. This tactic is reminiscent of Russia’s previous interventions in regions like Ukraine and Syria, where it has fostered discord to expand its influence.

Moreover, the shadow of The Africa Corps—an organization aligned with Russian interests—adds another layer of complexity to an already fraught geopolitical landscape. As unrest continues to brew, the potential for The Africa Corps to exploit the situation grows.

Utilizing sophisticated disinformation campaigns and support for various factions, they could deepen Nigeria’s divisions, hinder democratic processes, and thwart any efforts toward stabilization and reform.

The ramifications of such interference go beyond immediate political disruptions. Nigeria, as the epicenter of West Africa, plays a pivotal role in regional stability. Increased Russian influence and the possible militarization of protests could ignite conflicts that spill over borders, affecting neighboring countries and potentially leading to a broader crisis. This is particularly concerning given Nigeria’s strategic importance in the global oil market.

Ensuring that Nigeria remains a sovereign space for its people will require keen awareness, strategic foresight, and unwavering solidarity against any attempt to turn its trials into global opportunities for power play.

The merging currents of civil unrest with global geopolitical maneuvers must be met with dialogue and communication from the Nigerian government to its citizens. This is the time to come out clearly and address the concerns and issues head on. Failure to do so will open the door to outside influence, none more dangerous than that of Russia and its propaganda machine.

So, what next and what now? The answer is simple in theory but may be more challenging in its execution.

While Nigeria shares a relatively cohesive relationship with Russia, the insidious expansion of Russia’s influence into the country through Niger poses a profound threat to national sovereignty, political stability and regional security.

President Tinubu should also be wary of private militia groups, including Africa Corps. A better relationship with its neighbors, especially those where Africa Corps is operating, would enable Nigeria to monitor the activities of the group. To counteract this dangerous encroachment, Nigeria must take decisive action: enhancing diplomatic engagement with neighboring states, bolstering intelligence cooperation, and actively participating in multilateral efforts to combat disinformation and external interference. Additionally, investing in grassroots education and community resilience will empower citizens against divisive narratives and foreign manipulation. By reclaiming our narrative and strengthening our institutions, Nigeria can safeguard its sovereignty and ensure a secure future for generations to come. For President Tinubu, the time to act is now.

*Jonathan James writes from Abuja Nigeria. He is an International Affairs & Diplomacy Analyst with specialisation in Africa Affairs . He can be reached via afrirelated@gmail.com