Expert Calls for Thorough Execution of Nigeria’s New Birth Control Measures

Emmanuel Addeh

Global Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital, an emerging and frontier markets investment bank, Charlie Robertson, has called for the implementation of the recently announced measures by the federal government to curb Nigeria’s rising population.

While lauding Nigeria’s renewed efforts at controlling its population growth, Robertson recalled that similar goals to the ones launched by President Muhammadu Buhari, for instance in 2008, had not been reached.

Buhari had last week launched the Revised National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development, in a move aimed at checking the high fertility rate in the country.

The president stressed the need for urgent measures to address Nigeria’s high fertility rate, through expanding access to modern contraceptive methods across the country.

In a note, made available to THISDAY, Robertson argued that fertility will play a key role in determining whether Africa will follow Asia’s success or Latin America’s rockier developmental road.

“UN demographic forecasts show that Nigeria is pretty well guaranteed to have widespread poverty in 2050. A high fertility rate means Nigeria’s population will not be able to grow deposits in the banking system, as a percentage of GDP.

“The shortage of cash will keep interest rates high. The high cost of borrowing money for investment means GDP growth will be low. Too few jobs will be created to meet the booming supply of labour from a country with a median age (today) of 16.

“We know this is the case – because it has been the story for more than 50 years. And not just in Nigeria, but across many countries in sub-Saharan Africa,” he stated in the note.

He stressed that it would be incredible if Nigeria could make progress on reducing child mortality rates as over 10 per cent of Nigerian children die before the age of five, a fatality rate that is far in excess of better understood risks like COVID.

He added that when child mortality rates fall, so does fertility, arguing that after that comes lower interest rates, more jobs and more growth.

“Buhari mentioned girls education. When girls stay at school until they are 16 or 18, they might have their first child at 19 instead of their third child like those who left school at 12 or 13 might.

“Educated girls get jobs, earn money, push for education for their own children. It’s happened again and again around the world.

“In 2005, Bangladesh and Nigeria had the same population of 139 million. In 2021, Bangladesh was 166 million and Nigeria was 211 million. Since then, Nigeria’s economy has grown by 4.3 per cent a year, Bangladesh’s by 6.3 per cent, and the former has partly been a lucky gain from oil, while the latter has been self-grown.

“Per capita GDP in Bangladesh has risen by 400 per cent from $500 to $2,100. Nigeria’s has risen by 86 per cent, from $1,220 to $2,273. Bangladesh is on track to be a huge success in the next 20 years. Nigeria is not on the right track to do this,” the economist argued.

Robertson added that it is hugely important when a Nigerian president who is associated with the north, where educational access is more limited and fertility rates are higher, is prepared to back the sort of reforms that can transform Nigeria and make it look more Bangladesh in the future, “rather than keep it stuck looking like the Nigeria of the past.”