Tough and Resilient President Bola Tinubu is Man of the Year

Olawale Olaleye

On a balance of scales and given all considerations, it is hard to find anyone, who could fairly challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to the THISDAY Man of the Year commemoration.

Determined and unfazed in the face of mounting challenges and attendant hardships, the president marches on with his audacious reforms to change Nigeria.

In his first and only media interview, he told the nation “you can’t be doing the same thing and expect different outcomes.”

With that, he served the nation notice of his resolve to stick to his reforms.

The president, who ran his election campaign on the mantra of emi lo kan (it’s my turn to be president), has waltzed through some of the most troubling phases of his less than two years old presidency.

From merely providing leadership to introducing very unpopular but promising reforms, Tinubu has proven to be that daring and gritty leader, who is driven more by convictions of his choices than pandering to sheer sentiments or the crowd.

Although the removal of subsidy from petroleum had been settled by the previous administration of Muhammadu Buhari, and as a matter of legislation by the nineth National Assembly, owning and managing the consequences of that choice had been Tinubu’s hardest job since he took over as president.

The floating of the naira to enable it find its level against other currencies, particularly against the dollar and by extension, engender the stability of the market, was an equally difficult decision that Tinubu had to make.

No doubt, the economic situation the country found itself was desperate. There was no need postponing the evil day. Tough choices needed to be made. With courage, nevertheless, Tinubu dared the consequences and took a decision he reckoned was in the nation’s best interest.

Tinubu knew from the get-go that fighting for the financial autonomy of the local government system was going to set him against the governors. This much he knew being a former governor. But after weighing his options, he knew better than to continue to perpetrate an aberration and he did that which was for the collective good.

His controversial tax reform bills that are currently before the tenth National Assembly have almost set him up against a section of the country, which, according to some of its leaders, was designed against them, and made to favour a particular region in the federation.

But at his recent presidential media chat, Tinubu made it clear: There’s no going back on the tax reform bills.

Yet, conscious of the many challenges the country has since faced, particularly the hardship believed to have been occasioned by some of the economic decisions taken by his administration, the president has continued to introduce measures to cushion the effects and across all sectors.

There was the introduction of the CNG buses as buffer for subsidy removal. He has given  state governments more money than any administration in Nigeria’s contemporary history, and is constantly assisting the states with palliatives to help ameliorate the situation.

It was also the year external reserves swelled back up beyond $40 billion and trade surplus resurfaced and moribund refineries sputtered back to life. Methodical, yet forceful in his approach; deliberate and single-minded in his style, even his most implacable foes concede that Tinubu is a different kind of leader.

The president’s place and roles in global politics and governance, especially in Africa and the subregion in particular, are evident. His role as the ECOWAS chairman has been a difficult one given the unconstitutional change of governments in some of the neighbouring states, including Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, which has created a degree of instability in the regional body polity.

Notwithstanding the notice of exit served on the three nations of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, Tinubu, who recently promised the German President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, that the regional body would embrace wisdom in addressing the matter, has begun to consider a way of bringing them back into the fold. Talk about thinking leadership!

There might have been a few slips here and there while testing the waters on assumption of office and trying to get a hang of the state of play, a determined Tinubu has kept his eyes on the goal and was not moved by the uninformed clattering around him.

Whether lampooned as T-Pain or lionised as T-Gain, Tinubu could not be accused of lacking courage to take tough decisions or the will to stay the course.

Without a doubt, his approach to reform and governance could benefit from more rigour, consultation and inclusion, and his interventions could be better paced and executed. But it is difficult to argue that Tinubu did not earn his stripes as the most consequential Nigerian of 2024. 

Overall, the President of Nigeria,  Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has by every note, caution, indication and inaction, earned the THISDAY Man of the Year, because of his doggedness, resilience and his ability to take tough decisions, even against the grain.

Oil & Gas: Drill! Drill! Drill! to a New Cash Flow

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Without doubt, no Nigerian government has in recent years given the oil and gas sector, easily Nigeria’s cash cow, the focused attention that it has received from the Bola Tinubu administration.

Quite early in his government, Tinubu, who also oversees the sector, appeared to be quite cognisant of the critical role it plays in the economic survival of Nigeria’s most populous black nation.

To underscore the urgency of revitalising the waning sector, on June 8, 2023 just over a week after taking over the reins of power, the president began engaging the global leadership of the International Oil Companies (IOCs), starting with ExxonMobil.

This was followed on July 3, 2023 by a high-level meeting with Shell’s global leadership; Italy’s Eni on July 19; TotalEnergies’ top officials on December 18 as well as Chevron’s team, first in New York in October 2023 and then in Abuja in January, 2024.

Apparently, these initial engagements with both foreign and local oil companies laid the groundwork for the milestones that were to come later. Some of these include:

•Executive Orders

In February 2024, the president signed three Executive Orders as part of his commitment to improving the investment climate and positioning Nigeria as the preferred investment destination for the petroleum sector in Africa.

They included: The Oil and Gas Companies (Tax Incentives, Exemption, Remission, etc.) Order, 2024; Presidential Directive on Local Content Compliance Requirements, 2024 and the Presidential Directive on Reduction of Petroleum Sector Contracting Costs and Timelines.

•Raising Crude Production 

With oil production oscillating between 1 million bpd and 1.1 million when he took over, Tinubu immediately set out to revamp the fight against oil theft and assets vandalism which had hobbled output.

As a result, on November 14, 2024, the NNPC announced that production had hit a peak of 1.81 million bpd. The upstream regulator also reported circa 1.5 million bpd average volume for November, a major boost for foreign exchange.

•Two Key FIDs

In the last few months, Nigeria has achieved two major Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) with two key IOCs.

Shell’s recent FID on the $5 billion Bonga North oilfield, with approximately 350 million barrels of crude oil and the $550 million Ubeta oilfield FID, a partnership between TotalEnergies and NNPC are other major milestone achieved by Tinubu.

•Successful Divestments

In the 18 months of the Tinubu administration, there has been a conscious effort to accelerate some pending oil and gas divestments in Nigeria. All these have yielded results.

They include: Shell’s divestment of its Nigerian unit, the Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) to Renaissance Consortium and ExxonMobil’s divestment of its entire share capital from Mobil Producing Nigeria Limited (MPNU) to Seplat Energy.

Besides, TotalEnergies has divested its 10 per cent stake in its onshore operations to Chappal Energies;  Equinor has concluded the divestment of its interests to Chappel and Oando has successfully acquired Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC) from Eni.

•Petrol Subsidy Removal

Although it still elicits mixed emotions, the removal of petrol subsidy by Tinubu on the day of his inauguration on May 29, 2023 is still seen as one of the boldest decisions by any administration before him.

The aftermath of this decision, aside the temporary pains, has helped  reduce smuggling, increased government revenue, reduced dependence on imported fuel as well as significantly curbing the corruption associated with fuel subsidy payments.

•Availability of Products 

With market forces now determining the prices of petroleum products, for about the first time in a long time, Nigerians are not complaining of scarcity during the Yuletide season. This is a plus for the administration.

•Restarting of Port Harcourt, Warri Refineries 

Long dependent on importation, the re-streaming of the first phase of the 210,000 bpd on November 26 as well as the announcement by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) on Monday 30, of the partial commencement of production at the Warri refinery are major feats by the Tinubu government.

Now operating at 70 per cent and 60 per cent respectively, coupled with the Dangote refinery in Lagos, Nigeria is set to become a net exporter of petroleum products in the next few years.

•Naira-for-Crude Policy

Described as a game-changer for the economy, this policy by the Bola Tinubu administration allowed local refiners to purchase crude oil and sell their products in Naira to the Nigerian public, thereby reducing reliance on foreign exchange for petroleum product transactions.

•Inauguration of Key Gas Projects 

The president also recently inaugurated three critical gas infrastructure projects, which include: the ANOH-OB3 CTMS gas pipeline and ANOH gas processing plant in Assa, Ohaji/Egbema in Imo State as well as the expansion of the AHL gas processing plant 2 gas project in Kwale in Delta.

For Tinubu, Reforms are Pathways to Economic Prosperity, Inclusive Growth

Obinna Chima

A major challenge that has over the years mired the growth of the Nigerian economy is economic waste. Economic wastes significantly drag national economies as they divert resources away from productive investments and lead to wrong economic choices.

This was why immediately he assumed office, President Bola Tinubu took the bold step of removing the country’s petrol subsidy policy and the multiple exchange rate regimes that were major drains to the Nigerian economy. Though these twin policies exacerbated socio-economic challenges and brought about unprecedented economic shocks,  even though they have helped in addressing some inefficiencies in the Nigerian economy. With these two policies, the President has unlocked opportunities to boost prosperity, improve overall well-being and stimulate economic growth as for the first time in about two decades, Nigeria’s proposed national budget for 2025 does not have allocation for petrol subsidy.

Beyond these two reforms, President Tinubu in his aggressive drive to positively change the Nigerian story is also reforming other critical sectors of the economy. For instance, through the Electricity Act 2023, the President seeks to improve power supply, encourage renewable energy by offering incentives like feed-in tariffs and tax breaks. Also, President Tinubu has signed three executive orders to reform the oil and gas sector. These included fiscal incentives for non-associated gas projects, reduced contracting costs and timelines, and measures to address local content compliance. Additionally, the President is vigorously pushing for a reform of the country’s tax system with the Tax Reform Bills that are president before the National Assembly.

These reforms have gotten the support of multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the African Development Bank, among others.

World Bank’s Managing Director of Operations, Anna Bjerde, recently assured Nigeria that, “the World Bank will  continue to support the reforms of the President Tinubu’s administration through the supportive instrument that we have and we will be stepping up our financial support to Nigeria in line with all the different initiatives that are being taken and all the needs that the economy has”.

She expressed optimism that the Bank would grow its programme currently running with the Nigerian government.

Overall, while these reforms come with their pains and discomfort, President Tinubu has shown that by doing the heavy lifting in the early years of his administration, Nigerians would in the coming years enjoy the benefits of these policies.

Monetary Policy Feats Under Tinubu

James Emejo in Abuja

In the monetary policy space,  following key reforms directed and approved by President Bola Tinubu, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, has introduced major policies that have restored investor confidence in the Nigerian economy and repositioned it on the path of growth.

Part of the FX reforms focused on the settlement of about $7 billion inherited liabilities to investors, a situation that had eroded confidence in the CBN and the economy.

Cardoso had since cleared those genuine FX backlogs with the support of the president.

With the directive of the president to reshape monetary policy to respond to the needs of the country, the CBN under Cardoso had introduced policies to liberalise the  FX segment, particularly floating the Naira.

This singular initiative ensured that the value of the local currency is determined by market forces, leading to price discovery, and further serving as incentives for foreign investors.

In November 2023, the central bank further, hinted at a new directive to banks to raise their minimum capital thresholds by March 31, 2026 through a range of options including equity issuance, mergers, or license adjustments. The capital mobilisation exercise is intended to help banks play their strategic role in the $1 trillion economy envisaged by Tinubu.

Under Tinubu, the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) successively to 27.50 per cent in a bid to address inflation initially attributable to liquidity surfeit in the economy at the inception of the current administration.

Analysts believe that but for the several policy interventions by the CBN, the country’s headline inflation would have been worse than its current rate, which would have further weakened the purchasing power of Nigerians.

In addition, the MPR hikes have also made the economy attractive to foreign investors.

It is generally believed that the Nigerian economy has since turned the corner due to recent improvements in macroeconomic indices that had eluded previous administrations.

His Bold But Controversial Tax Reform Bills

James Emejo in Abuja

President Bola Tinubu further took the bull by the horns by initiating efforts to overhaul the country’s inefficient tax system.

In August 2023, the president

inaugurated the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, chaired by Mr. Taiwo Oyedele – reaffirming Tinubu’s commitment to addressing inherent challenges in tax administration and ushering transformative reforms in fiscal policy and taxation.

Oyedele’s  primary objective was to simply taxation, enhance revenue collection efficiency, ensure transparent reporting, and promote the effective utilisation of tax and other revenues to boost citizens’ tax morale, foster a healthy tax culture, and drive voluntary compliance among others.

The committee had since concluded its assignment while four bills to reform major aspects of the tax system have been transmitted to the National Assembly for passage into law.

The tax reform bills before the National Assembly are aimed at economic transformation to empower Nigerians and facilitate inclusive economic growth.

They include the Nigeria Tax Bill – harmonises all the major taxes such as corporate income tax, personal income tax, VAT among other;

Nigeria Tax Administration Bill – provides a framework for tax management covering taxpayer identification, registration, assessment, collection, enforcement, among other things;

Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill – seeks to replace the FIRS with the NRS to perform a broader role of revenue administration in Nigeria and drive collaboration with subnational governments and MDAs and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill – to transform the JTB to JRB with an expanded mandate and enhanced role for cooperation and tax harmonisation.

 The bill also sets up the office of the tax Ombudsman to protect taxpayers and advocate for tax simplification.

Although, the proposed tax reforms promises to exempt certain categories of tax payers particularly Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) from taxes as well as income earners – and collapse the existing multiplicity of taxes at both federal and local government levels into single digit, the exercise had continued to face push backs from some aggrieved stakeholders, particularly some Northern politicians.

Efforts by Oyedele’s committee to introduce fairness and equity in Value Added Tax (VAT) administration had been largely politicised and criticised by some uninformed audience.

Yet, in the face of the opposition, Tinubu had stood his ground, adding in a recent interview that the proposed new tax regime had come to stay though the initiative was still open to further consultation and negotiations.

The president had maintained that there was no going back in his administration’s current efforts reform the tax system, adding that it served to benefit the vulnerable and expand the tax base.

In showing empathy with Nigerians, he said ongoing reforms were not designed to inflict pains on anybody but to grow the economy.

He said a “new dawn is here, and I am convinced” and asked Nigerians to be patient over his reform efforts.

Insecurity Still a Challenge

Michael Olugbode in Abuja

Although the present administration of President Bola Tinubu, has recorded some milestones in the war against insecurity, which has seen banditry at its lowest, Boko Haram hardly heard of, significant reduction in kidnapping, and the IPOB threat in the Southeast no longer what it used to be, the nation cannot still be said to be out of the woods yet.

Nigeria  has faced new security challenges in the last 18 months of the Tinubu presidency, resulting in significant losses of lives and property.

If there was any doubt about this, another look at the latest Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey (CESPS) conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and released a few days ago would put such doubts to rest.

According to the survey, Nigerians paid a total of N2.23 trillion in ransom over the 12-month period from May 2023 to April 2024. This amount was reportedly paid by households affected by kidnapping, justifying the inherent threat posed by criminals across the country.

The CESPS, while providing a detailed account of the crime situation in Nigeria, noted that a total of 51.89 million crime incidences were experienced by households during the period under review.

The North-West region recorded the highest number of crimes, with over 14.4 million incidents, followed by the North-Central region at 8.8 million. In contrast, the South-East recorded the fewest incidences, with 6.18 million cases.

The survey also highlighted that rural areas were more affected by crimes than urban areas, with rural households experiencing a total of 26.53 million crime incidents, compared to 25.36 million in urban settings.

A major finding by the CESPS was the alarming number of kidnapping incidents. The report stated that approximately 4.14 million households in Nigeria fell victim to home robbery.

Also, a significant 65% of households affected by kidnapping were forced to pay a ransom to secure the release of their loved ones. The average ransom paid was said to be N2.67 million, contributing to the total sum of N2.23 trillion allegedly spent by Nigerians on kidnappers’ demands during the 12-month period.

The survey also found that only 36.3% of those affected by home robbery reported the incident to the police, while the reporting rate for kidnappings was similarly low. The reasons for not reporting crimes, the report stated, included a lack of confidence in law enforcement agencies and the belief that police intervention would not result in meaningful action.

On an individual level, the survey revealed that 21.4% of Nigerians reported being victims of crime. The most common crime was phone theft, which affected 13.8% of Nigerians. But despite the high incidence of phone theft, 90% of victims reported to the police.

While the report has been dismissed in some quarters as not correct, point to the improbable statistic, the verdict is that while Tinubu might have made some effort in this area, it’s been clearly not enough.

Strong Commitment to Promoting Gender Inclusivity, Empowerment

Chiemelie Ezeobi

Considerably, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has demonstrated a commitment to promoting gender inclusivity and empowering women in his administration through several affirmative actions.

These initiatives highlight his dedication to giving women a more prominent role in governance and national development.

The increased representation in his ministerial cabinet marked a significant step towards gender inclusivity in the highest levels of governance with the likes of Jumoke Oduwole as Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment of Nigeria and Hanafi Musawa as Minister of Arts, Culture, Tourism and Creative Economy, amongst several others.

 Also in aligning with global advocacy for women’s empowerment in leadership positions, he appointed women to head critical agencies and advisory positions, ensuring they contribute to decision-making processes across various sectors like Zainab Ahmed, who was appointed as his Special Adviser on Economic Matters.

More importantly, Tinubu’s economic reforms, such as financial inclusion initiatives and support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), are even tailored to empower women entrepreneurs, who make up a significant portion of Nigeria’s informal sector, just as women have been included in policies like the Students Loan Bill and palliatives for vulnerable group.

 In his commitment to Gender Equality, Tinubu has reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to international frameworks like the Beijing Declaration and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which emphasise gender equality and women’s empowerment with his administration promising to enact and enforce laws that protect women’s rights, combat gender-based violence, and promote equal opportunities.

Also, through women-focused programs, the Tinubu administration has expanded women’s participation in programs for education, skills acquisition, and healthcare under the National Social Investment Program (NSIP).

Although these actions underline Tinubu’s recognition of women as essential partners in driving Nigeria’s growth and stability, like Oliver Twist, stakeholders posit that more needs to be done to ensure that women’s voices are heard even louder.