THE CURSE OF INCUMBENTS AND JOHN MAHAMA’S RETURN

The presidential election in Ghana holds lessons for Nigeria, argues Joshua J. Omojuwa

If you ignore the pun, the ovation has been quite loud this week in Ghana with President John Mahama pulling a Trump; he is back for his second term. There is a lot to be said for two presidents who were rejected at the polls only to return to win years after their first term. If for nothing, it speaks to context and time in politics. A good candidate can run at the wrong time, take a John McCain, only to end up losing. And a bad candidate can win if the atmosphere is desperate for change, any sort of change, I have no examples for this one. You must think of one for yourself.

I was in Ghana about nine years ago. I was flying from Accra to Kumasi for an event and happened to be on the same flight with then presidential hopeful, Nana Akufo-Addo. Nigeria had just elected Buhari and many in Ghana, at the time, desired that sort of change. They found a lot of inspiration in the Nigerian result and many indeed saw Nana as their own Buhari. Akufo-Addo was at least tested, if you believe trust is subjective.

He made his first run for the Ghana presidency in 1998 but lost his party’s ticket to John Kufuor. He served under the Kufuour government as their party won the polls. Akufo-Addo went a step further the next time in the 2008 election cycle by clinching his party’s ticket. However, he lost the tightest of races to John Atta Mills. In 2012, he lost his first of three back-to-back election battles to John Mahama. He then defeated the incumbent president four years later and held out against him to win re-election in 2020 in another tight race.

When we landed in Kumasi, everyone wanted to shake the man’s hands. He looked like a rockstar, and you could tell that he was going to mount a real challenge. He did more than that, because he won the election the following year. Nana Akufo-Addo became president amidst a lot of optimism. He was seen as the people’s president.

As usual though, the lovefest with the people was not to last. He barely survived re-election, and his party ultimately paid by losing to a resurgent John Mahama last weekend. Despite a few shortcomings, Ghana showed why it remains one of Africa’s better democracies. Plenty to learn there for other African countries where organizing elections remain a herculean ask.

The Ghana election result aligns with global trends. There has been an unusual rate of defeat for incumbent governments all over the world. Whilst the trend is global, some polls show that the reasons for voters making these decisions are more local than global. Real everyday issues; hunger, unemployment and the general rise in the cost of living. Global in nature, personal in reality.

The Democrats fell amidst a chaotic election run in the United States whilst the Conservatives were sent packing in the United Kingdom. It was unthinkable to see the African National Congress (ANC) losing its hold on the South African parliament and presidency but elections this year showed that the ANC has a tougher future ahead. It lost its majority for the first time since the end of apartheid.

In Senegal, Macky Sall, who came on the back of popular Sunu 2012 protests, saw his alliance fall to Bassirou Diomaye Faye. In neighbouring France, Emmanuel Macron lost some ground after calling for snap elections. There were similar trends in Japan, India and Bangladesh.

Nigeria’s elections aren’t until 2027 but if you consider that 2025 is here soon enough, we are in the tick of the actions and inactions that will decide that election in just over two years. We already see the usual attempts at alliances. But we do know that serious conversations for those may not truly begin until after the election, when the conversation is certain to focus on what might have been.

In a few months, it will be half term for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He did the unusual this quarter when he fired some ministers after just about a year in office. He will likely make such a move once or twice before the elections are here. His chances at the polls will either be bolstered by the benefits of his reforms, or God forbid for the sake of Nigerians, the costs. That said, politics will play a bigger part than anything else and the president knows that.

Will he keep his party united? The current trends do not suggest there will be any major cracks within the incumbent party. That is not to say some members will not stay within to help execute for political interests without. Hate it or love, whilst muted, the games are already in play.

If Nigerians want the best for themselves though, better to ask of the government now what they want now. There will always be elections and rumours of elections. We have mostly moved on as a collective in that sense; always with an eye on the next government when in truth, the only government that can change things at scale is the government in power, per time.

The dynamics of the 2023 elections remain largely in play, with many still looking at the country through the lens of that poll. Some continue to wallow in the pain of the loss whilst others keep basking in their victory. Both are right, because after two years of an event, it really must make sense to them that at some point, one must get in the moment and also look to the future.

Ghana, as it often shows with its elections, has led the way. It is never ever a do or die affair. You win, you lose, you return to win after losing or lose after winning. Or indeed, never win no matter how many times you run. Whoever plays a competition must keep all the possibilities in mind, irrespective of your wishes. That is one of the many promises of elections.

 Omojuwa is chief strategist Alpha Reach/ BGX Publishing