‘Nigerian Economy to Witness Significant Growth between Now and 2027’

Yinka Kolawole in Osogbo

 The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) in its assessment of the efforts of the current administration in the last 12 months, has revealed that the Nigerian economy will witness remarkable growth in the years ahead.

This was disclosed in a paper titled: ‘Prospects for the Nigerian Economy: 2023 to 2027’,  presented by Dr. Segun Awode of the Department of Economic and Business Policy, NISER, at the Institute’s seminar series held yesterday

The Institute disclosed that the paper is an incisive short and medium-term assessment of the socio-economic impact of the president’s first term in office with a view to proffering suggestions on critical performance domains, namely: growth, employment generation, inflation and the fiscal policy profile. The evidence presented is based on the results of a macro-economic modelling exercise.

The presenter, Awode, revealed during the presentation that: “While there are currently pains from the immediate effects of policy reforms, the projections show improved performance on the four performance domains which include that economic growth in Nigeria will be above 3 percent from 2024 to 2027 bringing an optimistic impact of the present economic reforms.

“The growth of the agriculture sector will be slow, averaging about 0.5 percent due to structural defects that should be addressed for a robust growth trajectory given the importance of the sector in the Nigerian economy.

“Distributive trade, building and construction sectors will witness a significant surge in growth in 2024, averaging 16 percent each from 2024 to 2027, indicating the impact of reforms around the Presidential intervention development grants, driven by increased infrastructural investment and construction activities. Mining and quarrying will grow consistently averaging 11 percent with the potential to make solid minerals ‘the new oil’ for Nigeria.

“20 million jobs will be generated within the period of 2023- to 2027, should the minimum wage negotiation settle at N70,000. However, a minimum wage of N100, 000 will lessen the number of generated jobs by 1 million. Either way, the effects will not trigger inflation as anticipated.

“Projections on the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio is within the 3 percent generally acceptable limit. The total debt stock to GDP ratio will be 34.91 percent in 2027, well within the internationally acceptable limit of 40 percent.

“The debt service to revenue ratio projections appear relatively high due to pressure to borrow to service loans, however, the progress being made in revenue collection by the current administration will yield an improved fiscal profile in the country. At present, both the headline and food inflation rates are quite high, but a rapid decline will be witnessed in 2025.”

The Director-General of the Institute, Professor Antonia Taiye Simbine, in her welcome remarks, noted that “what NISER has done is to examine some of the reforms in place under the current administration and to project where the country will be in 2027, all things being equal and especially if we continue on the same or on an improved trajectory.”

The discussants, Mr. David Adeosun (former director, macroeconomic department, MFBNP), and Professor Suleiman Yusuf of Agricultural Economics department, University of Ibadan, also aligned with the position of the Institute that there is hope in the horizon for Nigeria’s economy.

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