Obinna Chima
Analysts at FSDH Merchant Bank Limited, have predicted that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will end the year 2019 slightly above two per cent.
The projected GDP figure, the Lagos-based research and investment firm, pointed out, would be higher than the 1.9 per cent the country recorded in 2018.
FSDH Merchant stated this in a report released yesterday, in reaction to the second quarter (Q2) GDP figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday.
The NBS report had shown that in the second quarter of 2019, real GDP grew by 1.9 per cent, higher than the 1.5 per cent recorded in same period in 2018, but marginally lower than the two per cent achieved in the previous quarter.
“Crude Oil output continued to influence overall GDP growth significantly. Prior to the second quarter, the sector has weighed down overall growth in the last four quarters.
“In 2019 Q2, crude oil sector returned to positive growth and was instrumental in stimulating overall output in the quarter.
“When compared with the corresponding quarter of 2018, the gradual pick-up in economic activities is mainly as a result of improved performance of Information and Communication, crude oil and agriculture,” the FSDH report stated.
In the second quarter of 2019, oil GDP returned to a positive growth of 5.2 per cent for the first time since the first quarter of 2018.
This, according to analysts at FSDH, was largely as a result of increased crude oil output which averaged 1.98 million barrels per day in the quarter.
“In addition to oil output, the base effect was responsible for this increase, especially given that oil GDP had the largest decline of -4 per cent in 2018 Q2.
“The decline in Oil GDP was instrumental in pulling the economy into a recession in 2016. However, its return to positive growth presents a glimmer of hope and strengthens overall growth prospects of the economy.
“Non-oil GDP has remained resilient but has experienced weak growth. It grew by 1.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2019. This is the lowest growth recorded since 2018 Q2,” it added.
Furthermore, the report showed that services remained the driver of GDP growth in 2018 and 2019 Q2, led by Transportation and Storage and Information & Communication, although Water Supply/Waste Management had the highest growth of 14.4 per cent in 2019 Q2.
