FG’s Revenue Drops by 53 Per Cent in May

Obinna Chima

At N384.88billion, estimated federally-collected revenue (gross) in May 2016, fell short of the provisional monthly budget estimate of N814.87billion by 52.8 per cent.

It was also lower than the receipt of the preceding month by 1.6 per cent.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which disclosed this in its monthly economic report for May 2016 that was posted on its website stated that the development, relative to the provisional monthly budget estimate was attributed to the decline in oil and non-oil revenue.

According to the report, at N185.76 billion or 48.3 per cent of the total revenue, gross oil receipts also fell short of both the provisional monthly budget estimate of N452.60 and the preceding month’s receipts of N227.69 billion by 59 and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

The decrease in oil revenue relative to the monthly budget estimate was attributed to the decline in domestic crude oil/gas sales owing to shut-downs and shut-ins in production arising from repairs at some NNPC terminals.
Pipeline destruction, vandalism and the persistent decline in crude oil prices also contributed to the decline.

Furthermore, it revealed that non-oil revenue, at N199.12 billion or 51.7 per cent of the total revenue fell short of both the provisional monthly budget estimate of N362.26billion and the preceding month’s level by 45 and 2.7 per cent, respectively.
The decline in May 2016, compared with the preceding month, was due to the decrease in receipts from the independent revenue of the federal government, Customs and excise duties.

Of the gross federally-collected revenue, the sums of N57.11billion, N1.20billion and N6.33billion were deducted from the gross oil revenue in respect of JVC Cash Calls, Department of Petroleum Resources’ cost of collection and NNPC Refunds, respectively, leaving a net balance of N121.12billion as oil receipts.

Similarly, the sum of N7.35billion was deducted as cost of collection by the Federal Inland Revenue Service and Nigeria Customs Service from the gross non-oil receipt, leaving a net balance of N191.77billion.

It also showed that Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids stood at an average of 1.35 mbd or 41.85 million barrels (mb) in the review month.

This represented a decline of 0.33 mbd or 19.6 per cent below the average of 1.68 mbd or 52.08 mb recorded in the preceding month. Crude oil export stood at 0.90 mbd or 27.90 mb, which represented a decrease of 26.83 per cent, compared with 1.23 mbd or 38.13 mb recorded in the preceding month. The development in crude oil production was attributed, largely, to destruction of oil and natural gas infrastructure in the Niger Delta by the militants.

Allocation of crude oil for domestic consumption remained at 0.45 mbd or 13.95 mb during the period under review.

At an estimated average of US$47.59 per barrel, the average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37º API), indicated an increase of 12.6 per cent, compared with the level in the preceding month. The development was attributed, largely, to increasing global oil supply outages and the growth in global oil demand, plus on-going declines in the US rig count and in crude oil production. The UK Brent at US$44.77/b, the WTI at US$46.61/b, and the Forcados at US$47.19/b, exhibited similar trends as the Bonny Light.

In the same vein, provisional data indicated that relative to the level at end-April 2016, growth in the key monetary aggregates were moderate at the end of May 2016. On month-on-month basis, broad money supply (M2), at N20.971 trillion, fell by 0.03 per cent, in contrast to the increase of 1.3 per cent at the end of the preceding month.

The development reflected solely the fall of two per cent in net domestic credit of the banking system, which more than offset the increase of 3.2 per cent and 3.9 per cent in net foreign asset and other assets (net) of the banking system, respectively.

On the other hand, narrow money supply (M1), grew by 2.8 per cent, relative to the level in the preceding month, but fell by 7.1 per cent, at the end of the corresponding period of 2015. The development, relative to the preceding month reflected, wholly, the increase of 3.9 per cent in its demand deposit component.

Banking system’s credit (net) to the federal government, on month-on-month basis, fell by 3.3 per cent at end-May 2016, but contrasted with an increase of four per cent, at the end of the preceding month. It also declined by 48.6 per cent at the end of the corresponding period of 2015. The development was due to the fall in banking system’s holding of government securities.

At N19.049 trillion, banking system’s credit to the private sector, on month-on-month basis, fell by 1.7 per cent, in contrast to the increase of 2.6 per cent and 1.5 per cent at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2015, respectively.

The development relative to the level at the end of the preceding month was due to the decline in claims on the core private sector. Over the level at end-December 2015, banking system’s credit to the private sector grew by 1.8 per cent, compared with the growth of 3.5 per cent and 3.1 per cent recorded at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2015, respectively.

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