•PDP states: 43.31%, APGA state: 2.59%, LP state: 2.30%
Despite the Peoples Democratic Party’s 18 states to All Progressives Congress’s 16, the political momentum is still with the latter in the new political calculation because of its control of the big population centres across the country.
With a combined voting strength of 35, 096, 654, the APC states constitute 51.79% of the country’s total voting population of 67, 764, 195, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission’s voter register released in 2011. This is against the 29, 350, 346 voters in the PDP states, representing 43.31% of the national voter population.
Even with the heavy possibility of the All Progressives Grand Alliance’s one state, with a voter population of 1, 758, 220, being 2.59% of the national voting population, and Labour Party’s equally one state, with voting strength of 1, 558, 975, being 2. 30% of the national total, aligning with PDP, the current ruling party will still be trailing the APC, given the duo’s percentages- 51.79% - 48.2%.
The combined total of all the three of them still falls short of the total voter strength of APC states with 2,429,113.
The voting strength of the APC states may, however, not absolutely translate to victory at the polls because PDP could win in states currently in APC’s kitty like Rivers, Imo and Edo but this is cancelled by the fact that PDP could lose Jigawa, Niger, Kebbi, Katsina, Gombe and Bauchi.
At the end of the day however, whichever momentum the APC has today could be consolidated or marred in the choice of its candidate. For now, without a defined opponent, Jonathan is running against his record. But when an APC candidate emerges is when this calculation can prove valid or otherwise.
The battle will however be lost and won in the South-west. The big question is will APC choose one of its candidates from the South-west and how much votes can Jonathan get in the South-west?
* watch out for the Battle of the South-west Next Week