Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney heads into his nominating convention with a solid shot at the presidency but substantial challenges en route - including broad perceptions among a downturn-battered public that, if elected, he'd favour wealthy Americans over the middle class.
That view complicates Romney's job winning over the economically distressed white voters among whom his fortunes may depend. It's also expressed in his persistent weakness in personal popularity overall, as well as his shortfall against Barack Obama in views he understands the economic problems ordinary Americans are having, reports ABC OTUS News.
Registered voters by a substantial 58-32 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll think Romney would do more to favour the wealthy than the middle class - the opposite of views on Obama's priority. Obama has a slight 7-point edge in better understanding the public's economic straits, and another wide lead, 61-27 percent, as seeming more friendly and likeable.
As he seeks to address those weaknesses, Romney grasps his party's presidential nomination with pushback on at least two fronts: Better alignment with public preferences for more limited government, and steady dissatisfaction with Obama's economic performance. Fifty-six percent of registered voters disapprove of Obama's work on the economy; largely as a result, fewer than half, 47 percent, approve of his job performance overall.
These competing sentiments boil down to essentially a dead heat in vote preferences. Among registered voters in this national survey, 47 percent support Romney, while 46 percent favour Obama, a split well within the margin of sampling error.
It's the seventh time in 14 ABC/Post surveys this cycle that Romney's held a scant (even 1-point) numerical edge. That marks his continued opportunity, but also his difficulties taking full advantage of Obama's weaknesses, particularly on the still-struggling economy. Eighty-five percent of registered voters say it's in bad shape, and, in a related result, seven in 10 say the country's seriously off on the wrong track - two highly hazardous numbers for incumbents.
Indeed, Obama's support has slipped numerically in each of the last four ABC/Post polls - from 51 percent in April to 46 percent now - as economic sentiment has worsened amid persistent unemployment and a resumption in rising gasoline prices.
Romney, crucially, has a slight, seven-point lead among registered voters in trust to handle the economy, 50-43 percent. And he benefits from the fact that 58 percent say they're not confident the economy would improve under a second Obama term. But 52 percent aren't confident it would improve under Romney, either - suggesting that beyond criticizing Obama's economic performance, Romney could benefit by sharpening his argument that he'd do better.
Among other results, this survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds a weak reception for Paul Ryan as Romney's vice presidential running mate - 54 percent of registered voters approve of the choice, somewhat lower than the customary levels in past elections. Still, that rises to 85 percent of "very" conservative registered voters and as many of those who strongly favour the Tea Party political movement, good for Romney in the GOP base.
Overall, though, two-thirds of registered voters say Ryan's selection will make no difference in their vote, while the rest divide essentially evenly on whether it makes them more or less likely to back the GOP ticket. And there is a risk: Registered voters by a broad 62-33 percent oppose Ryan's proposal to restructure Medicare. To date that does not look to have impacted trust to handle the issue, about an even division between Obama and Romney. That's in fact a plus for Romney, given the traditional Democratic advantage on Medicare. The question is how it plays out in the campaign ahead.
It's been tough so far for either candidate to gain much resonance. Apart from two polls with slight advantages for Obama in February and April, he and Romney have been essentially tied in 12 other ABC/Post matchups since April 2011. And while they're basically even in trust to handle one issue on which Obama has opportunity, Medicare, they're also tied on another, assisting small business, on which Romney's sought to portray Obama as out of touch.
The two are essentially even in trust to handle several other contentious issues, as well, including health care policy and education. Romney prevails in trust to handle the federal deficit. But Obama holds a big advantage, 52-38 percent, in trust to handle "social issues such as abortion and gay marriage," and leads Romney by 16 points on "addressing women's issues." (Neither of those has changed since spring.)
By extension of views on women's rights, Romney's overall support from registered women voters, a persistent difficulty for him, is just 43 percent, compared with his 51 percent support among men. (Obama, by contrast, has 49 percent support from registered women voters, 42 percent from men.)
Atop all these issues, the weight of public expectations represents another hurdle for Romney to address. Despite the dead-heat horse race, and the economy's continued straits, 56 percent of registered voters say they expect Obama ultimately to win a second term.