Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo Iweala
By Obinna Chima
The Renaissance Capital (RenCap) has said that despite the prediction by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the Nigerian economy would grow by 7.1 per cent this year, the country may record much faster growth given the on-going reforms initiated by the federal government.
The research and investment firm stated this in a report titled: “Thoughts from a Renaissance Man:
Who is Growing the Fastest in 2011-2013?” made available to THISDAY.
The international financial advisory said the latest IMF forecast provided a good opportunity to reveal economies that “grew fastest in 2011.”
The fund had in its latest, World Economic Outlook, forecast that growth in the Nigerian economy would drop slightly to 7.1 per cent this year, from the 7.2 per cent it was last year.
The fund had however predicted that the Sub-saharan Africa’s economy would grow by 5.4 per cent this year, from 5.1 per cent last year.
But commenting on the prediction on the Nigerian economy, RenCap said: “Nigeria should shift from sixth place with 7.2 per cent growth to second place in 2012 and 2013 with around 7 per cent growth – this is sufficient to double the economy within a decade from $239 billion in 2011 to over $500 billion by 2021.
“We believe much faster growth is possible given the current reform-minded government. Nigeria would be second only to China in 2012 if it was in the emerging market (EM) group of countries, with 7.1 per cent growth beating India’s 6.9 per cent and Indonesia’s 6.1 per cent. Kazakhstan is also doing extremely well, with a top-five position in the MSCI frontier market grouping over 2011 and 2013.”
The report revealed that in 2011, aside from Ghana, Zimbabwe grow by 9.3 per cent, Rwanda 8.8 per cent rise and while Ethiopia experienced an average 7.5 per cent real growth rate.
“The only problem is that of the 10 fastest-growing economies in 2011, the IMF only has data for three. The lack of 2011 data is also true for about 110 of the 183 economies the IMF follows. It is little wonder that much-maligned economists get their forecasts wrong – we have only just discovered what happened in 2010,” RenCap added.