President Goodluck Jonathan
By Collins Edomaruse
With nine days to the presidential election, President Goodluck Jonathan, the candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is most likely to win at first ballot, going by the latest results from the poll conducted for THISDAY by Ipsos, the world’s leading market research company.
But on the down side, the ruling party may lose more than the five states earlier predicted in the governorship election as voters continue to make their decisions ahead of the polls.
In the survey conducted nationwide between March 20 and April 4 – the second wave in the series – 62.1 per cent of the respondents said they would vote for Jonathan, representing a marginal 1.8 percentage point increase above the previous poll conducted between February 25 and March 16, 2011 and published on March 21.
Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) came second with 23.6 per cent (up from 22.4 per cent in the first wave), Malam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) scored 6 per cent (up from 4.7 per cent), and Malam Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) got 1.9 per cent (down from 5.9 per cent). Undecided dropped from 6.4 per cent to 6.2 per cent.
Going by the nationwide results, the presidential race is now effectively between Jonathan and Buhari, with Ribadu and Shekarau failing to record any significant improvement among the polled electorate.
The results show that Jonathan could win in all the geo-political zones, except North-west where Buhari is strongest.
Jonathan has clear leads in 25 states – Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba, and FCT. He holds narrow leads in two states – Bauchi and Osun – but has lost his lead in Niger to Buhari, although he gained Bauchi and Ekiti during the period.
Buhari holds clear leads in six states – Borno, Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi, Yobe and Zamfara – and narrow leads in three – Katsina, Niger and Sokoto.
The winner of the presidential election is required to score a simple majority of votes in addition to a minimum of 25 per cent in at least 24 states of the federation.
Going by the results of the survey, Jonathan will score at least 25 per cent in 32 states and FCT. He may however fail to hit the percentage in four states – Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi and Yobe.
It may be an uphill task for Buhari who is likely to meet the requirement in only 14 states and FCT, while failing in 22 states. Instructively, he did not score 25 per cent of the polled samples in any of the 17 Southern states.
He may also fail to meet the requirement in five Northern states, namely Adamawa, Benue, Kogi, Kwara and Taraba.
In the governorship, PDP could lose as many as six states – up from five predicted in the last wave of polling. It was predicted two weeks ago that PDP could lose five states in the governorship election—Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Imo and Kebbi.
However, the latest results show that while PDP could win 16 states, it could as well lose six states to the opposition, while another four hang in the balance.
For now, Bauchi is off the danger list for the PDP, but Ogun, Kwara, Kaduna and Nasarawa are endangered.
Kwara is tilting towards ACN, Kaduna and Nasarawa towards CPC. Although PDP is recovering lost ground in Delta and Kebbi, the leads are so marginal that it could swing either way. Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) is breathing down the neck of PDP in Delta while in Kebbi, the CPC is giving the party a run for its money.
Five states currently controlled by the PDP are too close to call – Adawama, which is a three-horse race involving PDP, CPC and ACN; Ebonyi, where ANPP is making a strong showing; Oyo, where again ACN is pushing forward; and Plateau, where the Deputy Governor, Pauline Tallen, who is running on the platform of Labour Party (LP), is doing very well.
ACN is gaining significantly across the states, notably Ogun and Kwara. In Ogun, the party is in clear lead ahead of the PDP, while in Kwara, it seems Saraki, the father and the son, may have to join forces to ward off the third force. Dr. Olusola Saraki is backing the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) candidate, Senator Gbemisola Saraki, while Governor Bukola Saraki is backing the PDP candidate, Alhaji AbdulFatah Ahmed.
Ipsos conducted 8,289 face-to-face and 3,270 telephonic interviews for this study.
Interviews were conducted with Nigerian adults aged 18+ who are registered to vote in the elections in April 2011.
The fieldwork was conducted from March 20th to April 4th by means of in-home interviews by trained Ipsos interviewers. The face-to-face sample was drawn from a stratified random selection of sampling points across all states in Nigeria. Telephonic fieldwork was conducted by means of re-contacting a panel of respondents who agreed to partake in this polling study after an earlier representative face-to-face survey. Quotas were set by state.
Overall data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
Interviews were conducted in all 36 states of the federation and the FCT. The interviews were conducted in the language of choice of the respondents: English, Pidgin, Igbo, Yoruba or Hausa.
All sample surveys are subject to statistical error, depending on sample size, interviewing methodology and response rate.
The margin of error for this poll is 0.93. This means that in 95 out of every 100 cases, the findings will fall within +/- 0.93 per cent range when looking at the national results. Base sizes for individual states vary but are much lower which means that the margin of error is wider for state results.
On a state level, the margin of error varies between +/- 5.8 per cent and +/- 6.3 per cent.
States PDP May Lose
Silva PDP 34%
Alaibe LP 47%
Suswam PDP 20%
Ugbah ACN 76%
Saror ANPP 1%
Ohakim PDP 21%
Araraume ACN 9%
Okorocha APGA 54%
Ahmed PDP 34%
Belgore ACN 41%
Saraki ACPN 12%
Doma PDP 39%
Almakura CPC 45%
Aboki LP 9%
Olurin PDP 24%
Amosun ACN 55%
Isiaka PPN 4%
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